Parameter Estimation For Logistic Population Growth Model In Banjarmasin

SUKMAWATY, YUANA Parameter Estimation For Logistic Population Growth Model In Banjarmasin. Parameter Estimation For Logistic Population Growth Model In Banjarmasin.

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Abstract

Abstract One of population problems in Banjarmasin is highly growth population rate. Based on Badan Pusat Statistik data, mean of sum of the population of Banjarmasin is more than other city and regencies in South Kalimantan. Even though Banjarmasin has incapacious area. The government explained that sum of the population of Banjarmasin would be increasing until 800.000 people in 2025. Consequently, Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Daerah (Bappeda) Banjarmasin would be seriously make growth population control program. The growth population problem in this city, with growth population rate limited can be explained using mathematic model, is Logistic Growth Model. This model can be using to conceive the involved processes in growth population problem with carrying capacity area. Beside that, it would support in decision making for the problem. The aims of this paper to estimate growth rate and carrying capacity parameter of Logistic Model in population of Banjarmasin. Beside that, it can be predicted sum of the population of Banjarmasin for the future. The research processes are literature study, with applied using sum of the population of Banjarmasin from 2010 until 2016. Estimation of growth population rate and carrying capacity in Banjarmasin are using LSQ-Nonlin Method. The purpose of this method is finding growth population rate and carrying capacity with normalized minimum distance, that known as “error” or “residual” between Logistic Growth Model and its estimator. The results are 0,0750 as estimator of growth population rate parameter with carrying capacity 775.920 people and predicted error is 1,1974 x 10-4 . The conclusion is seen that Logistic Growth Population Model can be good model to predicted sum of the population of Banjarmasin for the future. Keywords: estimation, sum of population, logistic model, Banjarmasin, LSQ-Nonlin

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Depositing User: Mr Arief Mirathan - Eka Setya Wijaya
Date Deposited: 05 Mar 2017 03:34
Last Modified: 17 Mar 2017 03:19
URI: http://eprints.unlam.ac.id/id/eprint/1520

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